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10.5593/sgemsocial2017/13/S03.054

KEY PROBLEMS CONCERNING BULGARIA’S INTEGRATION INTO THE EURO AREA

S.Trifonova,A.Pramatarov
Thursday 28 September 2017 by Libadmin2017

References: 4th International Multidisciplinary Scientific Conference on Social Sciences and Arts SGEM 2017, www.sgemsocial.org, SGEM2017 Conference Proceedings, ISBN 978-619-7408-15-7 / ISSN 2367-5659, 24 - 30 August, 2017, Book 1, Vol 3, 429-436 pp, DOI: 10.5593/sgemsocial2017/13/S03.054

ABSTRACT

The main objective of the paper is to analyze the key problems ahead of Bulgaria’s accession to the euro area. By joining the EU, Bulgaria assumed a duty and became eligible to join the euro area. By its nature and consequences, joining the eurozone is not only a matter of currency substitution, but also a radical change of the monetary regime and elimination of the currency board arrangement in Bulgaria.
The study emphasizes that to date the accession of Bulgaria to the euro area has the importance of an immediate national goal and economic policy’s task with the highest priority. There is no other forthcoming reform in Bulgarian economy, which can be compared to the depth, importance and significance of the expected consequences from the Bulgaria’s accession to the euro area.
The methodology of the study covers descriptive analysis, comparative analysis, critical analysis, empirical analysis. The empirical analysis is based on the Eurobaromer survey on the introduction of the euro in the EU Member States that have not yet adopted the common currency. The results of the survey show that in Bulgaria 76% of the respondents believe that our country is not prepared to enter the eurozone, while at the same time 50% support the entry into the euro area. A significant part - 44% believe that this will happen within 5 year-period, 24% bet for up to 10 years and according to 22% of Bulgarians, our country will never enter the euro area.
Key attention in the present study is attached to the main risks related to Bulgaria’s integration to the euro area. These risks are associated with the growing forces of EU segmentation – “two-speed Europe or multi-speed Europe”, changes in common conditions after “Brexit”, unresolved economic and refugee migration crisis, debt crisis, delayed reforms of institutions, and so on. The paper summarizes that currently Bulgaria’s candidature to join the exchange rate mechanism II is delayed under the influence of many factors and conditions, including delayed key structural reforms in the economy, the lack of a credible will and clear positions declared by all major political forces, by the expert community and by the civil society, poorly prepared, unfinished or discontinued preparatory measures by the competent state authorities and institutions.

Keywords: Bulgaria, euro area, ERM II, currency board arrangement, economic reforms

PAPER DOI: 10.5593/sgemsocial2017/13/S03.054 ; KEY PROBLEMS CONCERNING BULGARIA’S INTEGRATION INTO THE EURO AREA

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