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10.5593/sgemsocial2018H/11/S03.053

ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL PROBLEMS OF WORLD ECONOMY

N. A. Konakhina, A. A. Bocharov
Tuesday 10 April 2018 by lib_admin

References: 5th International Multidisciplinary Scientific Conference on Social Sciences and Arts SGEM 2018, www.sgemvienna.org, SGEM2018 Vienna ART Conference Proceedings, ISBN 978-619-7408-30-0 / ISSN 2367-5659, 19 - 21 March, 2018, Vol. 5, Issue 1.1; 413-420 pp, DOI: 10.5593/sgemsocial2018H/11/S03.053

ABSTRACT

The article describes the methodology for modeling global problems of the world economy. The main methodological provisions: the existence of the history of the problem development, the mutual influence of the problem development process, the influence of factors on problem development.
The mathematical model of global problems of the world economy is formed on the basis of the system approach. A particular feature of the system approach is the choice of the system of indicators that assess global problems, the choice of factors that affect the system of indicators, and the establishment of the relationship between factors and global problems.
The article substantiates the choice of indicators that assess global problems and indicators that evaluate factors. The model is the system of interrelated and interdependent econometric equations. Each equation is formulated as an ADL-model. Within the system of interrelated and interdependent econometric equations the connection between endogenous and exogenous variables is shown.
The article describes the technique for determining the coefficients of interrelated econometric equations. Based on the constructed model of econometric equations, the short-term forecasting of the system of indicators evaluating the global problems of the world economy is shown.

Keywords: system approach, system of interrelated and interdependent econometric equations, ADL-model, forecasting.


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